Oscar Stats 2014

I love Oscar Stats.

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  • Meryl Streep breaking her own record for nominations with 18.
  • That we might have to utter the words “Oscar Winner” and add “The Lone Ranger” after it.
  • 49th (!) Oscar nomination for John Williams (Soundtrack to The Book Thief) and he is still 10 shy of Walt Disney.
  • Cinematographer Roger Deakins looking to avoid going 0 for 11.
  • Jennifer Lawrence has her 3rd nomination at age 23 – the youngest to do so. (Teresa Wright was 24).
  • Gravity is only the 5th film to be nominated for all 7 technical awards. Titanic swept all 7. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the WorldHugo, and Life of Pi did not.

I could go all night. Check out exhaustive Oscar numbers trivia at The Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Indiewire, HitFix, and all over the web.

I want to focus on one movie by way of this tidbit:

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  • 11 acting nominations in the last 3 films directed by David O. Russell (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle). No wonder his actors want to keep working with him.

Last year, I noted the Silver Linings Playbook was nominated in the big 5 categories (picture, director, actor, actress, screenplay – only 3 have won all 5), each of the 4 acting categories (actor, actress, supporting actor, supporting actress – no film has won more than 3), and the much less reported on big 7 (picture, director, screenplay, all 4 acting awards - Mrs. Miniver and From Here to Eternity each won 5).

Unknown-1First, this is a credit to Russell who clearly knows how to make film that the Academy loves. Second, his film will not be winning any of the major awards except possibly one (my prognostication).

All the films that were nominated for the big 7 have won at least one of the 7. Last year, Jennifer Lawrence won for Silver Linings Playbook. This year, with picture and director between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, Actor likely going to Matthew McConaughey, and Supporting Actor all but certain going to Jared Leto, it leaves only Actress and Supporting Actress to continue this trend.

blue-jasmine-2Actress: Cate Blanchett seems to have it locked up winning nearly every precursor and Amy Adams winning none. My only thought here is all the negative Woody Allen publicity could spill over as Academy members vote. Adams is also an Oscar favorite having been nominated 4 times without winning as supporting actress. Love for her could boost her chances. But it isn’t likely.

UnknownSupporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o is the favorite. But Jennifer Lawrence has won her share of precursors, had a very splashy role (that she was too young for) in the movie, and is also an Oscar favorite (as noted, her 3rd nomination, already won once). Do they dare make her the first back-to-back winner since Tom Hanks? Do they make her the youngest two time acting winner (Luise Rainer was 28, Jodie Foster was 29)? I say probably not.

8 women have won Supporting Actress in their debut film. (Only 4 actresses, 2 supporting actors, and no actors). Plus, I’m predicting that Gravity will win Best Picture and Director. They won’t want to send 12 Years a Slave home empty-handed, so Supporting Actress to Nyong’o.

Thus to keep the record alive, Amy Adams has to pull a major upset in Best Actress. And if Jennifer Lawrence trips her way onto the stage with a win, expect 12 Years a Slave to win Best Picture.

I could be wrong, but it looks like the streak for the nominees of the big 7 will end this year.

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One comment on “Oscar Stats 2014

  1. Bobi says:

    I’m guessing the publicity about Woody Allen will have no effect Cate Blanchette… he got a pass when this came up many years ago so why will this year be any different.. The public is not handing in ballots. Personally I hope 12 years will get best picture, with a Director nod to Gravity. I wouldn’t mind seeing Nyong’o win but would certainly hate to see Ejiofor get ignored

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